An Inventor's Chance of Success

Sometimes an inventor asks about their chance of success.  If they are using an invention promotion company, I would say their chance of success would be better if they bought lottery tickets.  However, we have noticed some statistics that are useful in this evaluation.

Our usual practice is to do a patent search, then file a patent application.  Then in the years that follow, we help the inventor get trademarks, negotiate license agreements, and possibly file followup patent applications.  Over a period of time, we have observed some general statistics, which of course do not take into account if the product is a good idea, if the invention is at the right time, if it can be built for a price to make its sale price attractive, if the inventor is competent to get it to market, design it, hire the right people at the right time, etc.  Just looking at numbers, here are the numbers: 

100.  Of every 100 inventions we do patent searches on, about 60 percent of them turn out to have patentable subject matter.

50.  Of those 60 searches, about 50 of them go ahead with a patent application.

45.  Of those 50 applications, about 45 of them result in issued patents. 

25.  Of those 45 issued patents, about 25 inventors do nothing with the invention, or are not successful.  They may run out of energy, inspiration, time, dedication, or they may make dumb mistakes about marketing, packaging, designing, unable to find a licensee, or run out of money. 

20.  Out of the 45 issued patents, about 20 inventors do some kind of test marketing. 

5.  Of the 20 that do test marketing, about 5 will fail.  The item may not sell for the price they have to get in order to make a profit, or people may not be interested in the product.

15.  Of the 20 that do test marketing, about 15 are at least marginally successful. 

10.  Of the 15 that experience marginal success, about 10 will quit for lack of interest, resources, dedication, inspiration, changes in circumstance.  Some of these could have been saved if the inventors could learn from purchasers what they really want in this kind of product, and if the inventor can change his product. Most inventors don't realize how long it takes to make a product a success, and don't have the stamina to follow it through.

3 and 2.  Of the 5 that are left of the 20 who did test marketing, about 3 will grow  into successful single product businesses, and 2 will license their product to a larger company.   

Comments

[Tim Palmer]

Great post! This information is very difficult to find elsewhere, and is very revealing. I see myself sharing these numbers with potential clients and others (with attribution).

[Chris Ramsey]

This is a great topic!

How can we improve these odds? First, forget about the 40% who apparently don't have "patentable subject matter". Who's doing (and paying good money for) a patent search without having a pretty good gut feeling about patentability? (You may need a version of "Patent Search Lite" or something to that effect.)

The next big chasm is related to "running out of steam". I'm reminded of the saying "Go strong or not at all", and you need to be mindful of how much steam you'll need to see the thing through. No quitters allowed!

The remaining reduction steps seem reasonable. Bottom line, if we can find 100 people who have plenty of "steam" and have run their idea through "Patent Search Lite" the odds look better:

100 -> 83 -> 75 -> 33 -> 25 -> 8 -> 5&3

So maybe an upper bracket on this is 3-5%?

[Pam Blackwell]

We have a product that we have been waiting on the patent for about 5 years now. I was just wanting to know how long it usually takes and what we can do till then. It has great potential and has been placed in a home and been working for the last 5 years. Our problem is we do not know where to go from here.

[Michael J. Puleo]

To Whom It May Concern:

Chances of success or not? You tell me.

Best,

-MJP-

[Kate Deubert]

I am researching inventions that were once scoffed at but are now so commonplace we couldn't live without them. I'm especially interested in rural inventions and the American South, but city and/or global instances would be appreciated also. If anyone can offer specific examples, helpful books, or useful websites, I'd appreciate it. Thank you!